Welcome To the Revenge Bowl
The QB Competition that should have happened 4 years ago
Sunday the Browns travel to Tampa Bay’s Raymond James Stadium to take on the 0-1 Buccaneers. Game time is 12:00 noon CST as always the ChicagoLand Browns Backers will meet-up at Burke’s Public House 5401 N. Broadway to cheer the team onto victory. A little more than 4 years ago, as Baker Mayfield was going 6-8 in 14 games as the Browns starting QB, completing 60.5% of his passes with 17 TD’s and 13 interceptions the Browns front office began pursuing Houston QB Deshaun Watson. By the beginning of the 2022 season Mayfield was gone, traded to the Carolina Panthers, and Deshaun Watson was a new Brown serving an 11-game suspension for sexual improprieties while playing in Houston. Sunday’s game will mark the first time since the trade that these 2 QB’s have faced each other on the same field. Baker Mayfield has a well-earned reputation of loving to play with a chip on his shoulder. It’s a good bet he’s had this game circled on his calendar since the NFL schedule was released with an eye toward putting up big numbers to embarrass a Browns ownership and front office that believed Watson would be
the better QB. In the four intervening seasons Mayfield has played for three different teams while compiling a 30-34 record as a starter completing 65.5% of his passes averaging 7.1 yards per pass with 105 TD’s and 45 interceptions for a 94.5 QB rating with 156 sacks. As a result of injuries and his initial suspension Deshaun Watson has yet to play a full season as the Browns QB, in the 21 games he’s played with the Browns he’s compiled a 9-11 record, completing 61.6% of his passes averaging 6.1 yards per pass for a QB rating of 81.3 with 20 TD’s and 13 interceptions and 75 sacks. On Sunday Watson will not only try to redeem himself after earning PFF’s (ProFootballFocus) lowest starting QB grade last week he’ll also no doubt want to show Browns fans that he deserves to keep the starting QB job over Shedeur Sanders. Last week, Watson completed 16 of 22 passes for 205 yards with 1 TD and 1 interception in an embarrassing 34-10 loss to Jacksonville.
So, What Did We Learn Last Week
Like most NFL teams, the Browns gave their starters limited playing time during the preseason. As a result, last week’s game gave the coaching staff, players, and fans their first real look at the team under regular season game conditions. After reviewing the game video a couple of times, here are a few things I hope the coaching staff learned:
Deshaun Watson is no longer a true dual threat QB. Injuries (shoulder surgery and 2 Achilles injuries) and age appear to have robbed Watson of a lot of his speed, elusiveness and playmaking ability. Against Jacksonville he was unable to outrun or outmaneuver even linemen much less linebackers. He frequently scrambled with his head down missing open receivers. When he threw the ball over 63% of his passes went for 9 yards or less, if he can’t or won’t push the ball down the field defenders will start to sit on the short routes giving the offense even more difficulties. His footwork on his passes seemed unsteady and he didn’t seem to settle down until late in the 4th quarter garbage time when he threw some good balls leading to his lone TD pass. He also had a costly delay of game penalty at the Jaguars 4 yards line with 3 timeouts still available. Despite HC Todd Monken’s repeated votes of confidence if Watson’s league worst QB play continues a change to Shedeur Sanders seems inevitable.
The offense, outside of Watson, also needs a lot of work. The Browns started 5 new offensive linemen including 2 rookies and it showed, they gave up 5 sacks leading to the highest sack rate of any team during week one. The offense converted only 1 of 8 third downs (12.5%), the lowest conversion rate of any team during week one. Deshaun Watson led the team in rushing with only 38 yards and lead RB Quinshon Judkins averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. First time offensive coordinator Travis Switzer will need to develop better pass protection schemes this Sunday against a Tampa Bay defense that had the 2nd highest blitz rate (46%) in week one games, while giving up only 3.9 yards per rush against a talented Bengals offense. Hats off to rookie guard Austin Barber who earned the highest offensive PFF grade of any Browns for the week.
The defense needs just as much work as the offense. Last season the Browns had one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranked 4th in total defense and 3rd in pass yards allowed per game. Against Jacksonville the Browns defense missed 13 tackles (5th most in week one). Veteran LB Quincy had the lowest PFF defensive grade, an abysmal 29.9 out of 100 while CB Denzel Ward led the team with a 90.5 grade. Last week Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence earned a 150.6 QB rating, the highest of any starting QB. The defense allowed the 4th highest completion rate (78.2%) and 3rd highest yards per pass (10.7 yards) for the week with the 23rd lowest sack rate and 27th lowest QB pressure rate. New defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg will need to quickly adjust his defensive schemes to create more pressure against Baker Mayfield, who last week completed 84% of his passes from a clean pocket.
Don’t Let Tampa Bay’s Score Fool You
Last week, Tampa Bay fell behind Cincinnati 21-3 with 1:49 remaining in the second quarter. The Bucs lost four fumbles and allowed four sacks, while the Bengals had only one turnover and gave up one sack. Unlike the Browns, however, Tampa Bay fought back in the second half, outscoring Cincinnati by 12 and cutting the deficit to six with a chance to win late. Despite losing three fumbles, Mayfield completed 23 of 28 passes (82%), including 19 of 20 to his wide receivers and running back, for 216 yards and no touchdowns in the 33-27 loss to the Bengals. Buckeye fans will recognize Buc’s 2nd year receiver Emeka Egbuka who led the team with 6 catches for 68 yards on the day. The Browns defense who had the lowest blitz rate (12%) and 6th lowest pressure rate will probably need to blitz more and figure out better ways to pressure Mayfield who last season completed over 68% of his passes from a clean pocket as compared to a 55% completion rate with 6 TD’s and 4 interceptions when blitzed.