Merry Christmas and Happy New Year Browns fans. Sunday the 3-12 Browns welcome the 7-8 Miami Dolphins to Huntington Bank Field for the Browns final home game of the season. Game time is 3:05 PM as the NFL flexed the game from a Sunday Night Football national telecast to the late afternoon start. As usual the ChicagoLand Browns Backers/Northside Dawg Pound will be gathering at Burke’s Public House 5401 N. Broadway to cheer the Browns onto victory. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be making his second consecutive start at QB after completing 20 of 34 passes (58.8%) averaging 4.6 yards per pass with no TD’s and 2 interceptions for a 45.8 QB rating along with 49 yards rushing last Sunday. For the season DTR is 35 of 68 (51.5%) averaging 3.8 yards per pass with no TD’s, 5 interceptions and 6 sacks for a 30.1 QB rating. Sunday will be an important opportunity for DTR to show what he learned after his first start of the season and his viability as a future starting QB. DTR will be without WR Cedric Tillman who’s still in concussion protocol and TE David Njoku who has a knee injury. To be successful he will need to make good use of RB Jerome Ford who’s 5.5 yards per rush average is 5th and his catch rate of 86% is 9th in the NFL along with WR Jerry Jeudy who has 1,072 receiving yards.
For the Dolphins, Sunday’s game is a must win if they have any chance of making the playoff for the third consecutive year. Depending on the outcome of Saturday’s Bengals/Broncos game and Sunday’s early games Miami may be eliminated from the playoffs by the time they take the field in Cleveland. The Dolphins slim chances at making the playoffs took a major blow on Saturday when starting QB Tua Tagovailoa was downgraded to doubtful with a hip injury. Tagovialoa says he’s going to play, however with a bad hip and if the Dolphins are eliminated from the playoffs before game time, they may not risk starting him against a Browns defense that’s 12th in QB sack percentage, especially if their 5 time Pro-Bowl LT Terron Armstead who’s listed as questionable doesn’t play. Armstead who’s rated as the #2 DT by Pro Football Focus (PFF) has given up only 1 sack and 11 QB pressures in 431 passing snaps this season. Two big things you immediately notice when looking at Dolphins games are their overall team speed and heavy use of pre-snap motion on offense. Miami has had difficulties running the ball all season averaging just 4.0 yards per rush, third worst in the league, to compensate they use their speedy playmakers, WR’s Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle along with RB DeVon Achane on multiple screens and quick swing passes to get them running in space on the outside. Over 67% of Tagovialoa’s passes are for less than 10 yards with 13 TD’s and 1 interception. The Browns safeties and linebackers will have to be extra alert for these short passes and consistently tackle on the outside. Miami’s heavy use of pre-snap motion serves to not only confuse defenses, it also provides an indication of whether the defense is playing zone or man to man coverage while also giving their speedy playmakers a running start at the snap. Last season Miami led the NFL using pre-snap motion on 86% of their offensive snaps. Tagovialoa’s 72.9% completion percentage and 2.4 second time to throw currently lead the NFL while his 101.4 QB rating is 7th. He has 19 TD passes against 7 interceptions. Because of Tagovialoa’s quick release and their heavy use of screens and swing passes, defensive blitzes don’t have a big effect on his passing efficiency. When blitzed he’s completing 69% of his passes with 5 TD’s and 2 interceptions. Miami has arguably one of the fastest receiving duos in the NFL in WR’s Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Hill has 70 receptions averaging 11.9 yards per catch with 6 TD’s and Waddle has 54 receptions averaging 13 yards per catch with 2 TD’s. The Dolphins most efficient receivers are TE Jonnu Smith who’s caught 76 of 93 targets (81.7%), averaging 10.6 yards per catch including 6.1 yards after the catch with 6 TD’s and RB DeVon Achane who’s 89.4% catch rate is 4th in the NFL with 6 TD passes and 5 rushing TD’s. Achane averages 4.2 yards per rush with 17 runs of 10 yards or more. Overall Miami is 23rd in scoring at 20.3 points per game and 21st averaging 5.1 yards per play. On defense Miami is exceptionally strong in the middle of their defensive line with 17-year veteran DT Calais Campbell ranked 7th among 217 DT by PFF joining DT Zach Sieler who’s ranked 9th by PFF. The Dolphins also have 1st round rookie DE Chop Robinson starting at DE, he already has 7 sacks and 50 QB pressures. Despite all that, their less than 6% sack rate is 26th in the NFL. Miami’s best defensive player is 7-time Pro Bowl and 3 time All Pro CB Jalen Ramsey who has 2 interceptions, 12 QB pressures and 5 tackles for loss on the season. If DTR is going to have success throwing, he’ll probably have to pick on undrafted rookie CB Storm Duck (yes that’s his name) who has an opposing QB rating of 108.9. Miami’s defense is #3 in third down defense allowing teams to convert only 35% of their attempts and 4th in red zone defense. Overall, they are 7th in total defense giving up 313 yards per game and 11th in scoring defense at 21.9 points per game.
SEE YOU SUNDAY AT 3:05 CST GO BROWNS….GO CAVS…..GO BUCKEYES