Hi Browns fans welcome to week 7 of the season. Sunday the 1-5 Browns return home to Huntington Bank Field to take on the 1-5 Miami Dolphins. Game time is 12:00 noon CT and as usual the ChicagoLand Browns Backers/Northside Dawg Pound will meet up at Burke’s Public House 5401 N. Broadway to cheer our Browns on to their second victory of the season. The Browns’ difficulties on offense have been well documented, they’re last in points per game and yards per pass, 31st in yards per play and 31st in pass completion percentage. One of the little discussed contributors to their offensive woes has been General Manger Andrew Berry’s poor record in drafting offensive players. In the 5 drafts between 2020, when Berry took over the team, and 2024 the Browns have drafted 18 offensive players and only 1 of those 18 players (WR Jamari Thrash) is currently starting for the team. In addition to Thrash, only RB Jerome Ford is getting consistent playing time while WR Cedric Tillman and OT Dawand Jones are on injured reserve and back-up offensive linemen Luke Wypler and Zak Zinter have played fewer than 6 snaps this season. Adding to their problems on offense, according to the NY Times, Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus, the Browns wide receiver group is one of if not the worst in the league. They are last in separation when targeted for passes, 30th in max speed and their 17 pass drops lead the league. When coupled with the Browns’ ongoing problems on the offensive line, according to PFF, the team’s 4 offensive tackles all graded out at 53rd or lower among OT, there’s little mystery about why the Browns are last in scoring in the NFL. Last week the Steelers defensive game plan vividly exposed the Browns weaknesses on offense as they crowded the line of scrimmage with 7 players to take away Quinshon Judkins rushing attack, baiting the Browns into throwing the ball 52 times. Leading to QB Dillon Gabriel being sacked 6 times and hit 16 times on his way to completing 29 passes for just 221 yards and no touchdowns. Going forward the Browns can expect opponents to continue to force the Browns to demonstrate they can effectively throw the ball.
While it’ hard to characterize a week 7 game as pivotal for a team, Sunday’s game against the Dolphins is shaping up that way. Having gone 1-5 through their opening six game gauntlet during which they faced five 2024 playoff teams, the Browns now face a section of their schedule where 4 of their next 5 opponents have won 2 or fewer games so far this season. Beginning with the 1-5 Dolphins, the Browns will face the 0-6 NY Jets, 1-5 Ravens and 2-4 Raiders over the next five weeks. Miami comes into Sunday’s game ranked 29th in scoring defense allowing 29 points per game and 30th in total defense giving up 389 yards per game. Opponents have averaged 5.6 yards per rush 30th in the NFL while allowing a league high 168 yards rushing per game. The weather report for Sunday in Cleveland predicts moderate to heavy rain with wind gusts up to 25 MPH, so running the football will be crucial for the Browns. Given that the Browns have been throwing the ball a league leading 41.5 times per game, Coach Stefanski will need to show much more patience with his running game than he’s shown so far this season. When the Browns do throw the ball, they will be facing a pass defense that has allowed opponents to complete a league high 75% of their passes while gaining 8 yards per pass with only 1 interception. The Dolphins have 11 sacks so far, led by DE Bradley Chubb’s 3 sacks. No other Dolphin has more than 2 sacks. If the Browns makeshift offensive line can open some holes for Quinshon Judkins and protect Dillon Gabriel, the Browns could finally score more than 17 points for the first time this season. Despite bad weather being predicted for the game, the Browns will probably need to score more than a couple of touchdowns to win as the Dolphins have scored 21 points or more in 5 of their 6 games. Miami’s offense is ranked 18th averaging 22 points per game, almost 9 points better than the Browns, led by their veteran QB Tua Tagovailoa who’s completing almost 70% of his passes, averaging 6.7 yards per pass with 11 TD’s against 7 interceptions for a 92.1 QB rating. When pressured his completion rate drops to 54.2%, averaging 4.6 yards per pass. Much like Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers, Tua gets the ball out very quickly averaging 2.6 seconds time to throw. Miami’s offense is built for speed, led by WR Jaylen Waddle who averages 13.4 yards per catch with 3 TD’s. He’s caught 29 of 39 targets with 21 of those receptions resulting in first downs. Tua’s newest target is TE Darren Waller who joined the team 3 games ago. In those 3 games Waller has caught 4 TD’s while averaging 11.7 yards per reception. The Browns will need to pay close attention to him in the red zone and on pass routes down the seam where his size and speed are a problem. One of Tus’s favorite targets is dual threat RB DeVon Achane who is one of the fastest backs in the league, having run a 4.3 second 40 at the 2023 draft combine. Achane has 29 catches with 3 TD receptions while averaging 5.1 yards per carry with 3 TD’s on the ground. Achane is especially dangerous when he gets outside or in the open field where his outstanding speed can be deadly. If the Browns defense can contain Miami on a wet and windy field and the offense can find its way into the endzone more than twice the Browns have a good chance of getting their second win of the season. GO BROWNS