An Old-Fashioned Street Fight
Welcome to Steelers week Browns fans. Sunday the AFC North leading Cleveland Browns travel to Pittsburgh’s Acrisure Stadium for round two of their annual divisional slugfest against the Steelers. Game time is 12:00 noon CST and as usual Browns fans will be meeting up at Burke’s Public House to cheer the 5-2 Browns onto victory. With both teams vying for the division lead, plenty of trash talk and no love lost between them, Sunday’s game looks to be typical Browns Steelers rock fight with a few personal foul penalties thrown in for good measure. A Browns over the 5-2 Steelers would not only give the team their first win in Pittsburgh in 23 years it would also give them the head to head tie breaker over Pittsburgh, a 3-0 division record and the first season sweep of Pittsburgh since 1988. Fortunately, this history doesn’t seem to have much of an effect on the new coaching staff’s game planning or the expectations of the team especially the 16 players age 23 and younger who were babies the last time the Browns won in Pittsburgh.
Believe It or Not
The Steelers are currently riding a 3 game winning streak after their week 4 loss to the Browns, while the Browns have won 5 of their last 6 games after their week 1 loss to Jacksonville. And believe it or not Deshaun Watson enters this game with a higher QB rating (90.6) than Aaron Rodgers (88.9). Watson has also thrown fewer interceptions (3 vs. 5), has a lower interception rate (1.4% vs. 1.9%), a higher completion rate (64.8% vs. 61.6%), higher average yards per pass (7.1 yards vs. 6.5 yards) and fewer sack yards (133 yards vs. 176 yards) than Rodgers. Despite their historical reputation as a tough primarily running team the Steelers have evolved into a primarily passing team. They enter the game with 2nd lowest percentage of rushing plays and the 4th lowest rushes per game in the league while throwing the ball on over 64% of their offensive snaps, the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. They are virtually tied with the Browns in average rushing yards per game at 106 yards. Over their 3 game winning streak Rodgers has gotten hot improving his completion rate to 67.3% which led to a QB rating of 99.0 with 6 TDs against just 1 interception over the 3 games. In addition to limiting Rodgers passing, the key to stopping Pittsburgh’s offense this season is containing their all-purpose running back Jaylen Warren. Warren is currently 4th in yards per carry at 5.5 yards, 7th in total rushing yards and 4th in rush + receiving yards with 855 yards. During their last 3 games he’s averaging 84 rushing yards per game with 2 one hundred rushing games and 134 rushing and receiving yards per game. With starting WR Roman Wilson out with a hand injury, Rodgers will be even more reliant on WR D.K Metcalf, 32 receptions with 1 TD, and TE Pat Freiermuth 23 catches and 4 TDs along with Warren catching swing passes out of the backfield. After evaluating their experience during their week 4 loss, I expect the Steelers will look to isolate Browns DB Myles Harden (5”11” 195 lbs.) on Metcalf (6’4” 235 lbs.) and TE Darnell Washington (6’6” 311 lbs.) especially in the red zone and on third downs. The Browns will need to have a safety slide over to give him help especially on deep routes to Metcalf. While the Steelers offense has changed over time their defense remains just as tough as ever, led by 4-time All Pro and 2021 Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt. After 7 games the defense is 5th in points allowed giving up less than 20 points per game and 6th in total defense at 303.7 yards per game. Opponents are converting less than 35% of their third down attempts, 7th best in the NFL and allowing TDs on only 46% of their opponent’s trips into the red zone. They are also 6th in rushing defense, allowing 3.7 yards per carry and 91 rushing yards per game. In addition to Watt, who has 6 sacks, 20 QB pressures, 7 TFL and the highest defensive grade against the rush among defensive ends according to PFF, the Steelers have 4 time All Pro DT Cameron Heyward on the defensive line. Deshaun Watson will need to improve on his 3 second time to throw if he’s going to replicate his week 4 performance against Pittsburgh. CB Jamel Dean who has the 2nd highest defensive grade among DBs leads a secondary that’s 11th in passing yards allowed per game. Opponents have had some success going after CB Asante Samuels ranked 73rd among CBs and veteran S Jalen Ramsey who has a 126.7 opponent QB rating. Special teams, especially the field goal units, will probably be essential to winning this game with the Browns’ margin of victory of 3.2 points in their 5 wins and the Steelers 7-point margin in their 5 wins.
The Trade Deadline Looms
With the NFL trade deadline about 10 days away and the Browns pursuing their first division title since 1989 they look to be active buyers on the trade market. So, in the spirit of a loyal Browns fan I’d like to offer the front office a little help with their decision making. Most fans expect them to go after a blocking tight end to complement pass catching TEs Harold Fannin Jr. and Blake Whiteheart and help with their 19th ranked running game. In addition, I believe the front office should pursue a pass rushing defensive end especially with DE Jared Verse off to a remarkably slow start with no sacks through 7 games. I also think they need to pursue more depth at CB especially with opposing offenses openly attacking current third CB Myles Harden. In 7 games despite playing on only 290 defensive snaps Harden has been targeted a team high 40 times giving up 347 receiving yards, over 50 yards more than the combined yardage given up by CB Denzel Ward and CB Tyson Campbell.
See You Sunday GO BROWNS……GO CAVS